Bulgaria VS Türkiye Preview: Historical grudges and key qualifying battles, Türkiye’s chances of winning away from home

Bulgaria VS Türkiye

The Sofia National Stadium will usher in a key matchup in Group E of the World Cup European Qualifiers at 2:45 a.m. on October 12. The two teams, Bulgaria and Türkiye, are currently in completely different states and situations. The home team Bulgaria lost all two games in the group and failed to score a goal, while the visiting team Turkey urgently needed points to maintain its hope of qualifying after losing to Spain in the last round.

01 Comparison of team status and strength

The Bulgarian team is experiencing a serious competitive crisis. Ranked 71st in the world, their performance in this qualifying round was disastrous - they lost to Spain and Georgia by the same score of 0-3. Bulgaria's predicament is reflected on both the offensive and defensive ends: the offensive end averages only 4.8 shots per game, the shot accuracy rate is less than 20%, and the midfield pass success rate is as low as 72%. On the defensive end, systemic problems are even more prominent. In the past five games, the average number of goals conceded per game is as high as 2.8, and the error rate in connecting the wing defense and the center is alarming. What is even more worrying is that Bulgaria has failed to win in seven consecutive official games. Recently, it has suffered three consecutive losses and has been denied by its opponents. The team is also facing serious injuries, with nine core players including No. 2 scorer Derev and main midfielder Petkov missing. Although the Turkish team suffered a 0-6 defeat to Spain at home in the last round, its overall strength is still far better than Bulgaria. The team's overall value reaches 432 million euros, which is nearly nine times that of Bulgaria (13.5 million euros). Türkiye shows an obvious characteristic of "strong offense and weak defense": it has offensive players such as Calhanoglu, Yundel and Yildiz, but there are obvious loopholes on the defensive end. Especially in the disastrous defeat in the last round, the team's defense problems were fully exposed.

02 Historical confrontations and psychological advantages

Historical confrontation data shows a one-sided trend. In the past 10 matches, Türkiye has achieved an absolute advantage of 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. The most recent confrontation between the two teams was in the 2023 European Cup qualifiers. Türkiye defeated Bulgaria 2-0 away from home. In that game, Türkiye completed 18 shots, while Bulgaria had only 2 shots and zero shots on target. More profound historical data shows that the last time Bulgaria defeated Türkiye dates back to 2012, which means that they have not been able to defeat this opponent for 13 years. This long-term winless record will undoubtedly have a psychological impact on players on both sides.

03 Tactical Game and Key Players

Bulgaria is expected to adopt a 5-4-1 defensive counterattack formation in an attempt to limit Turkey's offense through intensive defense. However, the shortcomings in the turning speed of the team's central defender combination of Nedelkov and Hristov may be exploited by Türkiye's speedy forwards. Goalkeeper Iliev's save success rate is only 68%, and midfielder Despodov lacks sufficient support, making Bulgaria's offense often isolated and helpless. Türkiye is likely to change to 4-2-3-1, using double midfielders to protect the defense and free up Calhanoglu's forward space. Calhanoglu averages 2.1 key passes per game, while Yundel averages 3.5 successful dribbles per game. These data will pose a continued threat to Bulgaria. Youngster Yildiz (Juventus) is another key factor, currently one of the most capped players in Europe, having played a combined 95.1% of the minutes for club and country this season.

04 External factors and venue conditions

The high altitude characteristics of the Sofia National Stadium (1,300 meters above sea level) may affect the physical distribution of Turkish players, especially in the second half. The referee factor is also worthy of attention - the referee team in this game is from Germany, and historical penalty data shows that it has strict standards for foul calls, which may inhibit Turkey's high-pressing intensity. The fan factor may work against the home team. The average attendance rate of Bulgaria's home games is only 40%, while the Turkish fans' expeditionary army is expected to reach 5,000 people, which will form a considerable momentum in the away games.

05 Event Prediction and Outcome Analysis

Taking into account all factors, Türkiye’s probability of winning is as high as 68%. . The most likely score is 0-2 or 1-3, with Türkiye expected to win by at least two goals. Bulgaria's only way to break the game may be set kicks (accounting for 35%), but its conversion rate is only 8%, making it difficult to pose a substantial threat. For Turkey, this game is related to the initiative to qualify from the group. If they win, they will consolidate their second place in the group; while another defeat against Bulgaria means they will basically bid farewell to the qualifying competition in advance.

For Türkiye, this game is not only a battle for points, but also a key battle to revive morale. The shadow of the 0-6 defeat in the last round needs a victory to dispel, and facing the sluggish Bulgaria, taking all three points is the only goal. For Bulgaria, despite the lack of quality, the beauty of football lies in its unpredictability. In front of the home fans, whether they can bottom out and break the curse of not beating Turkey for 13 years will be the biggest highlight of this game.

Portugal VS Ireland

At 2:45 am on October 12, Group F of the European Zone of the World Cup Qualifiers will stage a focus battle. Portugal, the group leader, will face last-place Ireland in Lisbon. There is a sharp contrast between the two teams in terms of strength, state and confrontation history.

Portugal showed strong momentum in the first two rounds, beating Armenia 5-0 and Hungary 3-2, winning two consecutive games. Ireland has one draw and one loss without a win, especially the 1-2 upset loss to Armenia in the last round, which damaged the team's morale.

01 Team status and group situation

Portugal currently leads Group F with 6 points, scoring 8 goals and conceding 2, showing strong offensive power. The team has been in excellent form recently, with a record of 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the past 10 games, with a very high winning rate.

At home, Portugal's performance is even more perfect, with a record of 9 wins and 1 loss in the past 10 home games. In the first home match of this World Cup preliminaries, they swept Armenia 5-0, showing their strong home dominance..

Ireland is currently at the bottom of the group with only 1 point, and the qualifying situation is no longer optimistic. The team has been in a sluggish state recently, with 3 draws and 1 loss in the past 4 games and has not been able to taste victory.

Ireland's away performance is particularly weak, with only 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in the past 10 away games, with a winning rate of only 20%. The problems on the offensive end are particularly prominent. In the past 10 games, they only averaged 1.1 goals per game and failed to score in many games.

02 Historical confrontation records

Historical confrontation data shows a one-sided trend. The two teams have met 16 times in history, and Portugal has a record of 9 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, scoring 25 goals and conceding only 11 goals.

In the last 4 meetings, Portugal has maintained an unbeaten record of 3 wins and 1 draw, scoring 10 goals and conceding only 2 goals. The last time Portugal lost to Ireland was in a friendly match in 2005, when they lost 0-1 away from home.

At home, Portugal has remained unbeaten against Ireland in 5 consecutive games (4 wins and 1 draw). The last time they lost to an opponent at home was in 1992, which further enhanced the psychological advantage of Portuguese players.

The most recent match was a friendly match in June 2024. Portugal defeated Ireland 3-0 at home. In that game, Portugal had a ball possession rate of 69% and completely crushed its opponents with 20-5 shots on goal.

03 Tactical comparison and key players

The system created by Portuguese coach Martinez emphasizes the rhythm management of "ball control + speed up". The team usually adopts a 4-3-3 or 3-4-3 attacking formation, creating opportunities through high pressing and a combination of wing and center.

Portugal's high-position press can regain the ball more than 15 times per game, with a ball possession rate as high as 62%. Set-pieces are an important means of scoring for Portugal, with a success rate of 38%, ranking among the highest in Europe.

Ireland's tactics have become more pragmatic under Hallgrimsson's coaching, focusing on a 5-4-1 defensive counterattack formation. The core of the team's tactics is to shrink the penalty area and limit the opponent's penetration through intensive defense. The offense relies on long passes to find forward Ferguson.

Ireland’s tactics have obvious shortcomings, with less than 60% of wing defense coverage and large gaps in the ribs. On the offensive end, they averaged only 1.4 shots per game, making it difficult to pose a sustained threat to the opponent's defense.

04 Injury situation and lineup analysis

Portugal's lineup is star-studded, with first-line stars such as Ronaldo, B Seat, B Fee, and Dias. The entire team is worth far more than Ireland. The team's main injury impact comes from the absence of Cancelo and Joao Neves.

However, Portugal's lineup is deep enough. Cancelo's absence may be replaced by Tavares, and the overall impact will be limited. Cristiano Ronaldo is currently in good form and has scored goals for the national team in five consecutive games. The midfield combination of B Fee and B Seat also cooperates tacitly.

Ireland is facing a more serious injury problem. Many main players such as O'Dowda, Smodex and Ida are absent, further weakening the already limited lineup strength.

The team's offensive end mainly relies on forward Ferguson. He has scored goals for Ireland in three consecutive official games and is in acceptable condition. But the defense led by goalkeeper Bazunu (save success rate of 82%) will face a severe test.

05 Event Prediction and Outcome Analysis

Taking into account all factors, Portugal has a very high probability of winning. The most likely score is 3-0 or 2-0, with Portugal expected to win by at least two goals. If Portugal takes the lead early, it may further expand the score to 4-0.

For Portugal, this game is a good opportunity to consolidate the top spot in the group and strive for a goal difference advantage. Against Ireland, it is extremely difficult to score points in away games, and the realistic goal may be to avoid a disastrous defeat to boost morale.

The key to watch in the game is whether Ronaldo can continue his scoring record and how Portugal can break through Ireland's dense defense. Portugal is good at late-stage efforts, with 31% of its goals coming in the last 15 minutes of the game. This feature may become an important factor in breaking the deadlock.

For Portugal, this game is an excellent opportunity to consolidate the top spot in the group. With the advantage of home court and the absolute advantage in strength, taking all three points is the only goal. Cristiano Ronaldo will continue to break his national team scoring record, and the midfield combination of B Fee and B Seat will control the rhythm of the game.

Ireland has limited ability in away games and suffers from injuries. It is extremely difficult to score points in away games. The realistic goal may be to strive to "lose less but win more", limit Portugal's offense through intensive defense, and try to avoid a big defeat.

In the end, Portugal's strong strength and home court advantage should help them win easily and continue to lead Group F