Lakers and Fireships are out early! ESPN random simulation of NBA Cup: Trail Blazers lose to Celtics in finals

October 14th ESPN columnist Kevin Pelton wrote an article looking at the new NBA season from the perspective of random simulation.

The original text is as follows:

If the strength of each team can be accurately measured based on my data predictions, what will the new NBA season look like?

The core significance of simulating the NBA season in advance is often to deduce the probability of various scenarios - from the luck of the bottom team in winning the draft pick to the possibility of the top team eventually winning the Larry O'Brien Trophy (championship).

It is equally interesting to see how randomness can lead to unexpected endings through a single simulation. In keeping with ESPN's tradition of analyzing NFL season simulations, we will use simulation result No. 620 (selected for its dramatic ending) to provide a panoramic view of the entire NBA season from the opener to the Finals.

It should be noted that this is not my personal (nor ESPN's) real prediction for the season. All results are generated through stochastic simulations and every detail, including player data, is created.

In this virtual journey, we will witness the birth of the NBA Cup (formerly: Mid-Season Championship) champion, experience the carnival of the Christmas game, determine the final seat in the playoffs, reveal the results of the draft lottery, experience the exciting play-offs and playoffs, and finally be crowned the champion of the 2025-26 season. Let’s start this journey together.

About the NBA Cup:

Quarter-finals

The Celtics (No. 1 seed) defeated the Pistons (No. 4 seed)

The Heat (No. 2 seed) defeated the Cavaliers (No. 3 seed)

The Timberwolves (No. 4 seed) eliminated the Thunder (No. 1 seed)

The Trail Blazers (No. 3 seed) defeated the Grizzlies (No. 2 seed)

Semifinals

The Celtics (No. 1 seed) defeated the Heat (No. 2 seed)

The Trail Blazers (No. 3 seed) eliminated the Timberwolves (No. 4 seed)

Final:

The Celtics (No. 1 seed) defeated the Trail Blazers (No. 3 seed)

The NBA Cup will start on October 22 and end on December 17 (both are). An unexpected final was staged in Las Vegas - the Celtics met old guard Jrue Holiday's Trail Blazers. Although core player Tatum was absent due to injury, the Boston team still achieved a record of 16 wins and 10 losses at the start, winning the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They first defeated the Pistons at home and then eliminated the Heat in the semifinals in Las Vegas.

The Trail Blazers, who also scored 16 wins and 10 losses at the beginning of the season, seized the opportunity. After the Thunder was upset by the Timberwolves at home, this dark pony team (the Trail Blazers) first defeated the Grizzlies on the road, and then defeated the Timberwolves in the semifinals.

However, the Trail Blazers' promotion journey ended with a 115-103 defeat. In this campaign, the Portland team made only 10 of 36 three-pointers, while the Celtics' Derrick White and Pritchard each made 4 three-pointers. This victory immediately dispelled the (Celtics) statement that the NBA Cup was called the "19th championship banner" - but it still allowed the Celtics to tie the record of the old rival Lakers in the NBA Cup (formerly: mid-season championship) (1 time, and the Bucks also 1 time).

It can be seen from this random simulation that the Lakers, Warriors, Clippers and Rockets have not advanced to the top 8 of the NBA Cup.