Data analysis: Pacers 2-1 Thunder, the probability of winning the championship is still not high, 100% reversed in one case

This is the fourth time in the playoffs this season that the Pacers have taken a 2-1 lead in the series, and they all laughed to the end of the first three times and became the final winners. The first two rounds ended the battle 4-1, and the Eastern Conference Finals ended the battle 4-2.

When the Pacers scored more than 110 points in a single game this season, all the playoffs won and never failed; and when the Pacers scored less than 110 points in a single game, it is difficult to win the playoffs! It can be said that whether the Pacers can win depends entirely on offense and score.

So, if you lead 2-1 in the finals, how likely is it to win the championship?

Take the 25 seasons in the 1999-2000 season to 2023-2024 seasons as an example:

In the 25 seasons, there were 20 2-1 games in the first three games of the NBA Finals, and the leading team eventually won the championship of the season, 7 teams suffered a reversal, lost the championship, and had a 65% chance of winning.

and continue to narrow the scope. In these 25 seasons, the first three games of the NBA Finals have 12 times 1-1 and then become 2-1. The leading team has won the championship 8 times and was reversed 4 times. The probability of winning the championship is 66%, which is similar to the previous 65%, that is, whether it is 2-0 to 2-1 or 1-1 to 2-1, there is no big difference in essence.

This data is not high!

, these seven teams were reversed, and 3 teams were reversed 2-0, including the Mavericks' 2-0 lead and 4-0 eliminated by the Heat in the 2006 season; the Suns' 2-0 lead and 4-2 eliminated by the Bucks in the 2002 season; the Warriors' 2-0 lead and 4-3 eliminated by the Cavaliers in the 2002 season.

4 teams led 2-1 after 1-1, but suffered a reversal, and 3 teams were directly defeated by three consecutive games 2-4, namely the Heat in the 10-11 season, the Cavaliers in the 14-15 season, and the Celtics in the 21-22 season. One team was eliminated 3-4, and was the Spurs in the 12-13 season.

Therefore, although the Pacers are leading 2-1, they cannot be taken lightly at all. After all, judging from the data, the possibility of their championship is only about 66%.

Of course, we can continue to narrow the scope:

Without a home court advantage in the finals, we took the lead 2-1 in the first three games, and have appeared 5 times in the past 25 seasons, 3 of which have been reversed, and only 2 times successfully won the championship.

won the championship twice in the 2003-04 season. After the Pistons led 2-1, they finally defeated the Lakers 4-1 to win the championship.

11-12 season, the Heat led 2-1 after 1-1, and finally defeated the Thunder 4-1 to win the championship.

won the championship twice, winning 4 games in a row, not giving the opponent too many opportunities.

was reversed three times, in the 14-15 season, the Cavaliers led 2-1 after 1-1, but were reversed 4-2 by the Warriors; in the 21-22 season, the Celtics led 2-1 after 1-1, but were reversed 4-2 by the Warriors; in the 12-13 season, the Spurs led 2-1 after 1-1, but were reversed 4-3 by the Heat.

was reversed 3 times, 2 times were completed by the Warriors, and the process was exactly the same! Another time the Spurs were reversed by the Heat. The common point of these three times is that the side behind all equalized the big score away, 2-2!

Therefore, the fourth game is particularly critical. Once the Pacers win the 4th game and the Pacers lead 3-1, they will basically lock in the championship!

If you lose in the fourth game and both sides return to the same starting line 2-2, the Thunder will indeed regain the home advantage, and the possibility of a reversal will be high. Judging from past data, if a team without a home advantage leads 2-1 after 1-1, once you lose in the fourth game, the probability of being reversed is as high as 100%.