The Reds crushing at home is unstoppable! Liverpool VS Bournemouth s historical data reveals, the defending champion is aiming for a good start

1. Historical confrontation: Anfield's absolute dominance

The confrontation between Liverpool and Bournemouth is one of the most one-sided matchups in the Premier League. In the past 12 confrontations, the Reds have won 11 wins and 1 draw, with the last 5 confrontations winning completely and losing to their opponents. Especially at Anfield, Bournemouth has never tasted the taste of victory - since their promotion in 2015, they have only scored 1 point in their 8 away games to the Reds, and their last six away games have been defeated by a huge score of 2-23. The 9-0 epic victory in 2023 is still one of the biggest gaps in Premier League history. This psychological advantage will become Liverpool's invisible weapon.

From the perspective of tactical games, Liverpool is good at dismantling Bournemouth's defensive system through wing breakthroughs and midfield control. In the two rounds last season, the Reds won 3-0 (home) and 2-0 (away) respectively, Salah contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in these two games, showing absolute restraint on the Cherry Legion’s defense. Although Bournemouth defeated Liverpool 1-0 at home in 2023, the decline in five consecutive losses since then shows that they have never found an effective way to crack the Reds tactics.

2. Recent status: Liverpool urgently needs to rebound, Bournemouth has a double-defense attack and defense, although Liverpool lost to Crystal Palace in the Community Shield penalty shootout, the performance of 4 wins and 1 loss in the warm-up match is still showing its background. New players Wilz, Flynn Poon and others have initially integrated into the system. Wilz showed the creativity of the top midfielder in the preseason, and the wing corridor formed by Flynn Poon and Kolkz is expected to become the key to breaking the situation. However, the issue of defense line running-in still needs to be vigilant - the Community Shield was scored twice by Crystal Palace, revealing the unfamiliarity of Van Dijk and new aid Leoni. The situation in Bournemouth is worrying. Core defenders Zabarney, Wyson and Kolkz left the team collectively this summer, and new players Diakit, Petrovic and others have not yet formed a tacit understanding. They have not won in 4 warm-up matches (2 draws and 2 losses) and have conceded 1.67 goals per game. The offensive end was even more severely damaged: the top scorer Cruivet (12 goals last season), midfielder core Cook, and the wide-breathing point Sinistera were all absent due to injury, which directly caused the team to lose 60% of its offensive firepower. At the end of last season, they only won 3 games in 10 main games, and their defensive stalemate, which averaged 1.67 goals per game, has not changed yet.

3. Key variables: The injury wave and the chemical reaction between new players

Although Liverpool's injury list is not as serious as that of the opponent, core midfielder Heraffenberg was suspended due to a red card last season, which may affect the midfield interception ability. Joe Gomez's Achilles tendon injury and Bradley's knee injury also made Slott stretched the defense line - if the two are unable to appear, 16-year-old youth training player Engumoha may be ordered in danger. However, the joining of new aid Wilz injects new vitality into the offensive end. He has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in the preseason, which is expected to replicate the legend of Gundogan's debut goal.

Bornemouth is in a dilemma of "no one available". In addition to the above injuries, midfielder Billin's decline in form (the interception success rate dropped from 72% to 58% last season) and the lack of experience of the defensive core Senesi makes it difficult for Ilara's defensive counterattack tactics to be implemented. Even if the forward combination of Evan Dielson and Tavinier are enabled, the two have contributed only 8 goals in total last season, and it is unlikely to achieve the defense line led by Van Dijk.

4. Data model and expert prediction

Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool's winning rate of 69.4%, far exceeding Bournemouth's 13.7%. Historical data also support this conclusion: the Reds have remained unbeaten in the first round (9 wins and 3 draws) in the past 12 seasons, while Bournemouth has not lost in the last seven first rounds, but their opponents are far inferior to Liverpool. Salah's "first round law" is also worthy of attention - he has scored 9 goals in the first round of the Premier League and contributed 14 goals, making him a well-deserved "a good start to the season."

tactical level, Liverpool's 4-2-3-1 formation is expected to completely suppress Bournemouth's 4-3-3. Wilz's organizational dispatch at the 10th position, Garkepo's crossover with Salah, and Ekitic's speed shock may all create murderous intent on Bournemouth's weak wing defense. Bournemouth has a lack of wide-range explosive points, and its counterattack efficiency will be greatly reduced, and it relies more on set pieces or long passes in the midfield. However, Liverpool's targeted high-altitude top-square ability this season (Leoni is 195cm tall) just restrains this tactic.

5. Conclusion: Liverpool is likely to win easily

Combined with historical confrontations, injuries and tactical games, there is almost no suspense in Liverpool's home victory. The Reds are expected to start their defensive journey with a score of 2-0 or 3-1 – Wilz and Salah are expected to make a contribution each, while Bournemouth may be saved by substitute surprise Tavernell. If Liverpool's defense rebounds, it may even replicate the 3-0 victory last season. Bournemouth can only pray for another community shield-like low-level mistake in the Reds' defense line, otherwise it would be impossible to escape the shadow of the "Anfield Tragedy". This game is not only a contest of strength, but also a key battle for Liverpool to test the results of new players and reshape the championship temperament.