FA Cup final preview: Crystal Palace VS Manchester City - Grassroots counterattack VS giants redemption

Event background: The ultimate match of century-old glory

The FA Cup final of England is about to usher in a dramatic showdown - Premier League giant Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace. For Manchester City, this is the last chance to avoid the "four majors are empty" in the season; while Crystal Palace is eager to break the curse of not having a championship in 119 years of founding the team and write a grassroots legend.

Manchester City: Despite losing streaks in the Premier League and Champions League this season, the FA Cup is the last fig leaf for Guardiola's team. If it fails, this will be the first championship-free season since Guardiola coached Manchester City. The team urgently needs to use the trophy to calm the disappointment of fans.

Crystal Palace: He has reached the final twice and returned in a defeat (1990, 2016). In this tournament, he defeated strong enemies such as Villa and Tottenham, and advanced as a "giant killer". The whole team is determined to create history.

Core highlights: Conflicts and stars duel

Manchester City's ball control suppresses VS Crystal Palace's defensive counterattack

Manchester City: The ball control rate is as high as 68%, relying on the precise pass from the wing and De Bruyne's accurate pass, but the offensive efficiency has declined recently. Haaland has not yet recovered his shooting boots after his comeback, and wingers such as Foden and Doku are in a state of ups and downs. The defensive injury wave is even more fatal - Acker, Stones and Rodri are absent, and the substitute defense combination Laporte + Dias is averaging 1.3 goals per game.

Crystal Palace: Based on the 5-4-1 iron barrel array, the defensive counterattack success rate is 35%, and the set ball score rate is 18.4% (middle and upper reaches of the Premier League). The core Eze scored 5 goals in the last 4 games, and the forward line formed with Mattha (14 goals in the league) is extremely threatening, and the wing speed can directly hit Manchester City's full-back loopholes.

The winner and loser of the key players

Manchester City: De Bruyne may bid farewell to Blue Moon's career, and his pass schedule and Haaland's finishing ability will determine the direction of the game. If the deadlock cannot be broken, the stability of substitute goalkeeper Ortega (68% save success rate) may become a hidden danger.

Crystal Palace: Eze's breakthrough and Gallagher's midfield strangle are the hubs for offense and defense conversion. The central defender Gei's air defense ability (58% success rate for high-altitude top-square) will face Haaland's impact.

Historical confrontations and psychological games

Manchester City has an absolute advantage: 4 wins and 3 draws in the last 7 confrontations, 1 win and 1 draw in two Premier League rounds this season, including 5-2 home games, and Jacquesson's 5 goals in two rounds became a classic.

Crystal Palace's unpopular genes: it defeated Manchester City 2-0 away in the 2021-22 season. It only conceded 1 goal in five games in this FA Cup knockout stage, which is very resilient.

Tactical Game and Data Comparison

Indicators Manchester City Crystal Palace averages ball possession rate of 68% and 44% counterattack success rate of 22% and 35% set-piece score rate of 12% and 18.4% goal conceded 0.91.1

Although Manchester City controls the scene, Crystal Palace's counterattack efficiency and set-piece threat are more likely to be fatal in one blow. If Manchester City cannot score as early as possible, the game may be dragged into overtime or even a penalty shootout.

Prematch prediction and potential script

Routine time:

Manchester City win (probability 45%): De Bruyne assisted Haaland to score a header, Eze counterattacked to equalize, and Foden won the final game before the end of the game.

draw (probability 35%): Crystal Palace scored a lightning goal at the opening, Manchester City equalized the penalty kick, and entered the penalty shootout in vain in overtime.

Updated script: Crystal Palace replicated the classic of Wigan Athletics counterattacking Manchester City in 2013, winning the championship 2-1 or 3-2.

Conclusion: The charm of football lies in its unpredictability

This final is not only a competition of skills and tactics, but also a collision of two football spirits - Manchester City defends the dignity of a wealthy family, and Crystal Palace pursues a century-old dream. No matter what the outcome is, Wembley's night is destined to be in history.