When the East-West Finals are 3 to 1, there is a high probability that there will be no dark horse to turn around.

On May 29, the drama of the 2025 NBA playoffs seems to be gradually fading. With the East and West finals fighting 3-1, the basketball community generally believes that this year's finals match is about to emerge - the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will stage a youth storm on the highest stage. This one-sided situation disappoints fans who are looking forward to "dark horse counterattack" and also indicates the strong rise of the new generation of forces in the league. In the East, the Pacers used their smooth team basketball to teach defending champion Celtics a lesson. Halliburton's growth trajectory is amazing, with the 25-year-old point guard averaging 24.3 points and 11.7 assists in the series, with a 42.1% three-point shooting percentage. He dispatched the Pacers' offense like a symphony conductor, perfectly combining Turner's inside end, Mathering's outside firepower and new aid Siakam's all-around performance. What's even more impressive is their defensive resilience - in the G3 away overtime win, the Pacers sent 15 steals, turning the Celtics' turnover into a 28-point fast break. Head coach Carlisle's tactical board is full of the ultimate pursuit of details. His "delayed double-team" strategy designed for Tatum successfully limited the super scorer's series hit rate to below 41%.

The western battlefield staged a more amazing narrative of youth. The Thunder dwarfed the experienced Nuggets with their terrifying talent reserves. The 22-year-old Homgren was not afraid in front of Jokic, with an astonishing 48.6% three-point shooting percentage in the series. The scene of him hitting two arc top three-pointers in the last moment of G4 to secure the victory has become a classic moment in the playoffs this season. Alexander is launching a final sprint towards the MVP trophy with his average of 31.2 points per game. His unpredictable rhythm changes have caused the Nuggets' defensive system to collapse repeatedly. What is worth noting is the depth of the Thunder's lineup - when substitutes such as Jaylen Williams and Carson Wallace maintain high-intensity offense and defense in the second team, the Nuggets' rotation shortcomings are infinitely magnified. The draft wisdom accumulated by General Manager Presti over the years has produced the sweetest fruit this season.

historical data provide strong evidence for the current situation: in the history of the NBA playoffs, when the series leads 3-1, the probability of the leader finally advancing is as high as 95.3%. More specifically, in the division finals, the Warriors in 2016 have only completed a 1-3 major reversal in the past two decades. Although the Celtics have a home advantage, Porzingis's hamstring injury makes his return prospects dim; the Nuggets are trapped by a sharp decline in Murray's form, and the former key man shot only 31.8% from three-pointers this season. Both teams behind are facing a physical crisis of aging core rotation. This disadvantage will be further magnified in the division finals where a high-intensity game is held every 48 hours.

From the perspective of tactical evolution, this year's playoffs showed several significant trends. First of all, the extreme use of space - the Pacers and the Thunder averaged 41.2 and 39.8 three-pointers per game, with both shooting percentages remaining above 38%. This popularization of "five-for-one lineups" has redefined the defensive value of traditional insiders, and modern talent players like Turner and Homgren who can invest and defend well have become the scarce resource. The second is the soaring importance of the transition offense, with both young teams skilled in turning defensive pressure into fast break opportunities, with an average of more than 25 points per game through fast break in the series. Finally, there is the decisive role of lineup depth. When the main players' efficiency declines in fierce confrontation, players such as Isaiah Joe of the Thunder and Nemhard of the Pacers have repeatedly become X-factors to change the situation. At the level of business value, the Pacers vs. Thunder's finals match will set multiple records. This will be the first time since the Cavaliers' matchup against the Spurs in 2007, where neither team has any experience in the Finals. League president Adam Xiao Hua must be mixed - although he lacks the box office appeal of traditional giants, the new generation showdown between Halliburton and Alexander may attract more young audiences. Market research shows that these two stars have become more popular among Gen Z fans than many famous superstars. Another interesting data is: Indianapolis and Oklahoma City, where the two teams are home to small and medium-sized markets, which has broken the pattern of monopolizing the finals by big cities such as Los Angeles and Boston in recent years.

For Chinese fans, such a match is also full of highlights. The Pacers have a sponsorship contract from the Chinese brand Li Ning, and the "Blitz 9th Generation" sneakers on Halliburton's feet have become a hot topic among domestic basketball enthusiasts; the Thunder have accumulated a lot of loyal fans due to their in-depth cooperation with the CBA (including exchange events every summer). Tencent Sports' ratings data show that the average number of viewers in the Thunder game this season has increased by 137% year-on-year, setting a new record for the non-Rockets.

Of course, there are always theoretical variables in competitive sports. The Celtics locker room also hangs photos of the Heat jerseys that were finally reversed by 1-3 behind in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals; Nuggets coach Malone bluntly said after the G4 game: "Jokic has experienced a more difficult situation." But the reality is cruel - the Pacers won 5 wins and 0 losses in the final series this season, while the Thunder maintained a full playoff victory at home. When youth meets experience, the NBA in 2025 seems to be telling an inevitable law of metabolism: those carefully cultivated young talents will eventually usher in their crowning moment on the most dazzling stage.