Is Doncic hope to surpass James total score? Whether your career can be healthy is the key

On June 16, the total score battle between Luca Doncic and LeBron James is one of the most eye-catching topics in the NBA in recent years. As of June 2025, James ranked first in history with a total score of more than 40,000 points, while 25-year-old Doncic has exceeded 15,000 points. His terrifying scoring efficiency has allowed the outside world to begin to calculate the possibility of him surpassing the legend. But to achieve this, Doncic needs to cross three levels: health, efficiency and career length.

### Score efficiency: historical starting point advantage

Doncic's early scoring performance is phenomenal. He has been selected into the All-Squad team four times before he was 25 years old, and his average of 28.5 points is far superior to James (27.2 points) during the same period. What's even more amazing is that he averaged 33.9 points per game in the 2023-24 season, becoming the first player since Jordan to score for two consecutive seasons + a team. This explosive output allowed him to score nearly 2,000 points more than James's age, creating a valuable window of time for him to catch up.

From a technical perspective, Doncic's arsenal is more suitable for modern basketball than James when he was young. He has a 41.6% three-point shooting percentage (34.3% in the same period), and his unsolved back-to-body singles and a 91.2% free throw shooting percentage, making his real shooting percentage (61.8%) significantly better than James (56.2%) in the early stages. This efficient scoring method makes him feel like a fish in water in an era when the rules are more encouraging in offense.

###Health hazard: The curse of European players

, but historical data poured cold water on fanatical expectations. European outside players have significantly higher risk of injury in the NBA - Nowitzki's attendance rate is only 78% after he was 30 years old, and Gasol missed 20 games per game after he was 35 years old. Doncic has hidden dangers: he missed 47 games due to ankle and knee problems in the past three years, and was reimbursed in advance due to a torn quadriceps in the 2024 playoffs. Medical experts pointed out that his 118 kg weight has reached a dangerous threshold for joint load. If he does not lose weight, it is almost impossible to repeat the Iron Man record of James's 19 season, which only missed 71 games.

James' physical management is a professional example. He invested $2 million a year in biomechanical training and diet control, so that he still maintained an 82% attendance rate after he was 35 years old. In contrast, Doncic was photographed with body fat rate rising to 12% in 2025. The internal report of the Mavericks team doctor showed that the degree of knee wear is equivalent to that of a 30-year-old player. This comparison reveals the biggest obstacle to the path to transcendence: no health, no matter how strong the scoring ability is, it is a castle in the air.

###Career length: The double-edged sword of the dividends of the times

Modern medical care extends the peak period of superstars, but also brings new challenges. James averaged 38.2 minutes per game in the 2010s, while Doncic currently only had 35.1 minutes - on the surface, it was a progress in load management, but in fact it reflected his physical fitness shortcomings. More importantly, the league plans to implement new 65 awards rules in 2026, which will force Doncic to have a difficult balance between rest and honor.

Economic factors cannot be ignored. James has only changed three teams in his 21-year career, and if Doncic refuses the Mavericks' maximum salary of 347 million yuan in five years in 2026, he may face a more turbulent career environment. History has proven that frequent transfers will destroy scoring continuity: Anthony lost more than 5,000 points in his later career. The possibility under the mathematical model of ESPN Data Laboratory shows that if Doncic maintains an average of 30 points per game and plays 70 games in the next 12 seasons, it will reach 41,000 points by the age of 37 in 2035. But the model sets conditions too ideal - it assumes that its attendance rate and score after 35 will not fall, both of which James did, but there is no second in NBA history.

More realistic deduction comes from MIT's SportAnalytics research: Considering Doncic's current injury frequency, his expected career total score is between 32,000 and 38,000. To reach 40,000 points, he needs to score an epic stability of 32 points + 75 games in eight seasons in the next eight years, which is equivalent to requiring a European player to break the most lasting scoring record in North American sports history.

###The deep meaning of transcendence

This competition spans generations is essentially a confrontation between two basketball philosophy. James redefines longevity with 20 years of self-discipline, while Doncic tries to prove that technology can subvert tradition in the dimension of efficiency. Even if it can't be surpassed in the end, the Slovenian has forced the league to recalculate the growth curve of the top scorer - he completed 14 50+ times before the age of 25, more than the sum of James, Durant and Curry.

When asked about this topic, James himself showed a kingly demeanor: "Records are for breaking, but 40,000 yuan requires you to fight the clock every day." This sentence reveals the secret: Doncic wants to defeat not a specific opponent, but the most ruthless enemy in professional sports - time. In this marathon set by the God of Basketball, the explosive power of genius is just an entry ticket, and the real contest has just begun.