Wednesday s recommendation: Chibahara vs Kumamoto Crimson, Sendai Chinese Valentine VS Toyama Victory

Chibahara vs Kumamoto Crimson

1. Winning and Loss Forecast

Chibahara's Advantage Analysis of League Status and Status: Chibahara currently ranks first in the Japanese ranks B standings (11 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in 18 rounds), and performed strongly on both offense and defense, averaging 1.61 goals and conceded 0.78 goals, and a home winning rate of 66.7% (6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 9 home games). Cup spirit: As the leader of the league, Chiba Ichihara attaches great importance to the Emperor Cup. Although the league has declined recently (not winning in the last 3 rounds and being sealed in 2 games), he may attack with all his strength in the cup. Historical confrontation: The two sides have faced each other in the last 5 matches, Chiba Ichihara was slightly at a disadvantage in 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, but the first confrontation this season (April 29, 2025) was 0-0, with limited psychological advantages at home.

Kumamoto Crimson's disadvantages analyze the pressure and status of relegation: Kumamoto Crimson ranks last in the league (4 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in 18 rounds), 1 draw and 5 losses in the last 6 games, and averaging 2.17 goals per game, with serious defensive loopholes. The main goalkeeper Warrior Dameng was reimbursed for the season, and the substitute goalkeeper performed sluggishly. Away performance: Only 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 6 away games, with a winning rate of 17%, and was blocked three times, with no highlights on both offense and defense. There are doubts about fighting spirit in the Cup: the pressure of relegation may lead to rotation of the main players, and the intention to fight in the Cup is insufficient.

Comprehensive conclusion: Chiba Ichihara has better strength, home court advantage and cup fighting spirit, but we need to be wary of Kumamoto Crimson's counterattack ability. The probability of winning or losing tends to win Chiba Ichihara (the probability of winning is about 60%), but a draw is required.

2. Score prediction

Chiba Ichihara has scored 1.2 goals per game in the last 5 league games, but its offensive efficiency has declined recently (no goals scored in 3 consecutive games). The home firepower is stable, with 2.3 goals per game in the last five home games, but the iron barrel formation facing Kumamoto Crimson may be limited.

Kumamoto Crimson scored 0.83 goals per game in the last 6 league games, and his offense was weak, but he has tied or defeated Chiba Ichihara many times in historical confrontations. The defensive end problem is prominent, but the counterattack efficiency is high (counterattack goals account for 35% of the total goals this season).

Score tendency:

1-0: Chiba Ichihara won a small victory with his home advantage and set piece tactics (third in the league in this season's set piece scoring rate).

2-1: The offensive and defensive rhythm of both sides is open, Chiba Ichihara controls the midfield, and Kumamoto Crimson creates a threat through counterattack.

The draw may be: If Chibahara rotates or attacks are silent, it may end with 0-0 or 1-1.

3. Key data and risk warnings

Defensive risks Kumamoto Crimson has conceded 2.75 goals per game in the last four league games, and the defense line is in vain; Chiba Ichihara substitute goalkeeper Tomoya Wakahara is injured, but his recent zero-point rate is acceptable.

Tactical Game Chiba Ichihara may use 4-3-3 high-pressing, Kumamoto Crimson may shrink his defense and fight back, and the set piece may become the winner.

Injury affects Kumamoto Crimson's main goalkeeper Warrior Dameng's season reimbursement, and the substitute goalkeeper conceded 8 goals in the last 3 games; Chibahara midfielder Taishi Matsumoto is healthy, with stronger tactical execution.

4. Summary

Winning and Loss: Chiba Ichihara wins (probability 60%), draws (probability 30%), and Kumamoto Crimson wins (probability 10%).

scores: 1-0, 2-1 (probability 30% each), 1-1, 0-0 (probability 20% each).

Total number of goals: 2-3 goals are the main (probability 70%), and the probability of 4 goals or more is low (20%).

Risk warning: If Chiba City's original rotation main force or Kumamoto Crimson performs extraordinary, the score may exceed expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the pre-match starting list and tactical adjustments.

Sendai Qixi vs. Toyama Victory

1. Winning and Loss Analysis

Sendai Qixi wins more strength and league level: Sendai Qixi is the J2 League powerhouse, ranking fourth in the league, with an average of 1.2 goals per game on the offensive end, and has won all the last 5 home games and averaging 2.8 goals per game. The forward combination Vinicius Arauro (12 goals) and Nakayama Hito (8 goals) are in a very popular state. Toyama Victory is the J3 League team, ranking 18th in the league, with great pressure to relegate, and averaging only 0.88 goals on the offensive end, and only 1 win in the past 14 games, and its state is sluggish. Historical Confrontation: The two sides have played against each other in the last 5 times, and they have won all the Chinese Valentine's Day holiday, and have won more than 1 goal at home in the last 3 times, with obvious psychological advantages. Tactical restraint: Sendai focuses on ball control and wing breakthroughs, Toyama relies on defensive counterattacks and set pieces, but Sendai's home turf is of high quality, which may limit Toyama's ground penetration, and its set piece defense (Kanko Shota, who has a 70% success rate in heading the ball) can also deal with the threat.

Toyama has a low chance of a surprise victory. State and injury: Toyama has not won for 14 consecutive games in recent times, and the main scorer Usui Seiyo has transferred and left the team, and the offensive end has been further weakened; the defensive end is averaging 1.6 goals per game in the last five games, with obvious loopholes. The investment in the Cup: Toyama League is under great pressure to relegate, and it may be difficult to attack with all the strength in the Cup; although Sendai attaches limited importance to the Cup, his home intention is clear, and unpopularity should be avoided to affect morale.

2. Score and number of goals predictions

The probability of a big victory in the mainstream prediction direction is high: most analysts believe that Sendai may win with a score of 2-0, 3-1 or greater, and its home firepower (15 goals scored in the last 10 games) is in sharp contrast to Toyama's defense line problem (8 goals conceded in the last 6 games). Low probability of unpopularity: If Toyama uses a set piece or counterattack to make a sneak attack, the score may be 2-1 or 1-0, but Sendai will have to make a defensive mistake or fluctuate in form.

Key data supports Sendai's dominance at home: he has won all his home games in the last 10 home games and averaged 2.8 goals per game. He has a 100% winning rate when leading, a 47% possession rate but a high shooting efficiency. Toyama has weak away games: 0 wins in the last 6 away games, averaging 1.3 goals per game, and has not scored 5 goals on the offensive end, making the counterattack inefficient.

3. Comprehensive recommendation

score prediction: Xiantai Chinese Valentine's Chinese Valentine's Day 2-0, 3-1 or 3-0.

Goals tendency: Total goals scored 2-3 goals (Sendai's efficient offense + Toyama's defensive loophole), or 3-4 goals (Wasu Sendai's leading score in the first half).

Risk warning: Pay attention to the variables that may be brought about by the Sendai rotation lineup (such as the suspension of the main full-back) and the tactical adjustment of Toyama's new coach.