Today s game recommended Venice VS Fiorentina (with additional games)

1. Fighting intention and season positioning

Venice (Serie A 19th, 26th point): A back-to-back battle under the pressure of relegation is 2 points behind the safety zone, and the remaining schedule must be fully competed for points. The team has improved in the last 5 games by 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, but has a weak offense (5 clean sheets in their last 6 home games) 611. The compact venue (105 meters long and 68 meters wide) and fanatic atmosphere at home may interfere with the opponent's passing rhythm 7. If you lose, you may be relegated 1 round ahead of schedule; if you win, you will rekindle your hope of relegation.

Fiorentina (Serie A No. 9, 59): A key battle for European war qualification, only 4 points away from the European war zone. In the overtime of the UEFA European Union semi-finals, the loss to Real Betis 1-2. The main players such as Barack and Jovic consumed huge amounts of energy and lacked physical reserves. Central defender Panglachic was suspended and midfielder Mandelagra was injured, and the stability of defense and midfield scheduling ability were reduced. If you score points away, you can consolidate your European seats; if you lose a crushing defeat, you may withdraw from the European competition.

2. Tactical system and key counterattacks

Venice's defensive counterattack and set-piece dependence

defensive end: It is expected to adopt a 5-4-1 formation, shrink the defense line and compress the middle space, and the wingback reduces forward insertion and focuses on returning to defense. Central defender Altare (68% header success rate) built an air defense barrier with Cintian, and goalkeeper Ripley completed 2 clean sheets in his last 3 games, and his condition rebounded. 53% of the team's conceded goals this season came from crosses on the wing, so beware of Fiorentina's wing breakouts.

Offensive end: Relying on counterattack efficiency, winger Cheryshev (3 goals and 2 assists) breaks through the right cross and forward Ikpiazu's fulcrum is the core. Settings are an important scoring method (5 of the 12 goals this season are from settlings), and Altare's header and Bruno's free kick penalty (success rate of 75%) are the key to breaking the game.

Hidden danger: There is a shortage of players in the full-back position, young player Kitina and Ecovitti temporarily partnered with him, lack of defensive experience, and may be targeted by Fiorentina on the wing.

Fiorentina's wing and midfield control

offensive end: It is expected to continue with a 4-3-3 formation, with Bade on the left (2.3 passes per game) and Keane on the right (1.8 crosses per game) against Venice's substitute fullback. Midfielder Barack (3.1 key passes per game) led the dispatch, and the speed of the front line Jovic and Keane hit the ribs. In set pieces, central defender Mirenkovic (73% header success rate) can target the Venetian defense loopholes.

Defensive end: After Panglacić’s suspension, Mirenkovic and Duoduo’s defense line were partnered by him, and his ability to compete for the top at high altitude decreased (heading success rate is 61%). After midfielder Mandelagra was injured, Barack needed to take into account both defense and organization, and may be penetrated by Venice's counterattack.

Hidden danger: Severe physical overdraft, conceded 50% of the goals in the second half, and only 2 wins in the last 9 away games, so they lacked their ability to attack.

3. Key variables and winners

Midfielder strangle battle

Venice: Midfielder Caviglia needs to undertake the interception task to limit Barack's ball-holding progress. If the Fiorentine midfielder can be cut off from the connection between the striker, it can reduce the time spent on passing and control and focus on counterattack efficiency.

Fiorentina: Barack needs to retreat to the midfielder to organize and find space through frequent shifts of wingers (11.2 kilometers per game). If the midfield loses control, it may be forced to pass long (18th in Serie A per game), and the efficiency will be greatly reduced.

Wand offensive and defensive game

Venice Right: Cheryshev's breakthrough cross and Ikpiazu's point-grabbing cooperation is the core threat. Fiorentina right-back Martinez (58% confrontation success rate) needs to strengthen defense to avoid being broken.

Fiorentine left wing: Bade's inward shot (1.5 shots per game) and Duoduo's set cross could hit Venice's left. Venice left-back Kitina (60% confrontation success rate) needs to be wary of his speed shock.

Setting balls and physical fitness impact

Venice: The double-high configuration of Altaré and Cintian can target Fiorentina's corner kick defense loopholes (6 goals conceded in corner kicks this season), and Bruno's free kick penalty (success rate of 75%) is a weapon to break the game.

Fiorentina: Mirenkovic's header and Barack's cross from corner (1.2 key passes per game) need to echo Jovic's grab. However, insufficient physical fitness may lead to defensive mistakes, especially at the end of the game.

Injuries and lineup adjustment

Venice: Fullback Caboni and Sagrado were injured and were forced to use substitutes, with less than 7 in defense.

Fiorentina: Pongracic is suspended and Mandelagra is injured. The depth of the defense line and midfield rotation is weakened, and the team may change to strengthen the defense 5-3-2.

4. Data model and winning probability

Offensive efficiency: Venice averages 11.2 shots (conversion rate 9.8%), Fiorentina averages 13.8 shots (conversion rate 12.3%), Fiorentina is more threatening, but Venice is more counterattack efficient (counter strike goals account for 35%).

Defensive stability: Venice's recent defense has improved (4 goals conceded in the last 5 games), but conceded 63 goals in the league (the most in Serie A); Fiorentina has conceded 1.0 goals per game, and the away defense loopholes are obvious.

Home Advantage: Venice has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in its last 5 home games, and Fiorentina has 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in its last 6 away games. The physical disadvantage may amplify the away weak 711.

Odds tendency: European odds initially beat the home win 3.30, draw 3.10, away win 2.15, institutions tend to be unbeaten in Fiorentina, but Venice's defensive resilience may create a disposal.

5. Summary and prediction

The key to Venice's victory: use the high pressure press at home to cut off the Fiorentine midfield connection, score as early as possible through the advantage of breaking through the wing and setting balls, and then shrink the defense line to consume the opponent's physical fitness. If Cheryshev's form breaks out, it may replicate his performance of drawing Fiorentina in the first round.

Fiorentina's breakthrough path: Barack retreated to the organization, searching for gaps in the ribs through wingers, relying on Mirenkovic's header and Keane's speed to hit the defense line. If you can break the deadlock first, you may control the rhythm of the game, but you must be wary of defense loopholes caused by insufficient physical fitness.

Score prediction: Based on the current data, at least we are optimistic about the unbeaten by the home team. Reference scores: 1-0, 1-1, 2-1

Atlanta vs. Rome. It is optimistic that Rome will win at least one point, refer to the scores: 1-1, 1-2, 0-1