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Paraguay VS Uruguay Pre-match In-depth Analysis

1. Analysis of the rules of the World Cup South American Region qualifiers

According to the official rules of the South American Football Federation, the 2026 World Cup South American Region qualifiers adopt a 10-team home and away double round-robin match system. The top 6 directly advance to the World Cup finals and the 7th place participates in the Intercontinental Playoffs. The match was the 15th round showdown, with Paraguay ranked fifth with 21 points and Uruguay ranked third with 21 points. Both teams need to strive for victory to consolidate their direct promotion qualifications. If Uruguay is unbeaten in this game, it can lock in the top three seats in advance.

2. Officially released rosters and lineup analysis

Paraguay:

According to the 26-man roster released by the Paraguay Football Association in June 2025, the team is centered on European players, and the main lineup includes:

Almiron (Newcastle/right winger): This season, the Premier League has contributed 6 goals and 4 assists, 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 3 World Cup qualifiers, and the success rate of breakthrough on the wing is 38%, but only 1 goal in the last 5 club games, and its condition has declined. Julio Enciso (Brighton / midfielder): He has played 22 times this season in the Premier League, contributed 3 goals and 5 assists, 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 3 World Cup qualifiers, and has a key pass success rate of 35%, but the confrontation success rate is only 42%, so physical confrontation needs to be strengthened. Gustavo Gomez (Shapecoens / central defender): core of the defense. The club has played 28 times this season and has contributed 1 goal. He has completed 13 clearances in the last 3 games of the World Cup. However, his condition is doubtful due to injury recently. If he cannot start, it will affect the stability of the defense line. Damian Bobadira (Sao Paulo / Midfielder): Midfield interception success rate is 68%, the national team has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 3 games, but physical fitness issues may affect the full game coverage.

Uruguay: The 23-man roster released by the Uruguayan Football Association in June 2025 is coached by Bielsa, with European players as the backbone. The core lineup includes:

Darwin Nunes (Liverpool/Forward): This season, the Premier League has contributed 12 goals and 5 assists, 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 3 World Cup qualifiers, and the confrontation success rate is 58%, but only 1 goal in the last 5 club games, and its state fluctuates significantly. Manuel Ugat (Manchester United / Midfielder): This season, the Premier League has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists, 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 3 World Cup qualifiers, and a 72% interception success rate in the midfield, but he was absent due to a suspension in the first leg of the game against Argentina. He needs to be wary of the risk of yellow cards. Ronald Araujo (Barcelona/central defender): This season, La Liga has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, completed 15 clearances in the last 3 games of the World Cup, and has a 68% success rate in the high-altitude top-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square Matthias Oliveira (Naples/left back): Serie A contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season, with outstanding assists on the wing, and a 35% success rate in key passes, but there is a potential risk of storming the defensive end.

3. Highlights: The recent state and tactical impact of players

Paraguay:

Almiron: The national team has participated in 2 goals in the last 3 games, but the club's recent state has declined, with only 1 goal in the last 5 games. When he played against Uruguay in the first round, his wing breakthrough created multiple threats, but he needed to pay attention to physical fitness allocation. Gustavo Gomez: The core of the defense, but his condition is doubtful due to injury recently. If he cannot start, the substitute central defender Aldret (Du Heller) will turn slowly, which may become a breakthrough in Uruguay's counterattack. Julio Enciso: Midfielder, the national team has 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 3 games, but the success rate of the confrontation is insufficient and it depends on Bobadira's interception support.

Uruguay:

Darwin Nunes: The national team has 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 3 games, but the club's recent state has fluctuated and needs to rely on the national team's tactical system to play its role. Its speed and confrontation ability are the key to breaking intensive defense. Manuel Ugat: Intercepting the core in the midfield, the national team has 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 3 games, but the suspension in the first leg may affect the midfield control. Its ability to pass straight balls and shoot long shots is an important part of the offensive organization. Ronald Araujo: Defensive pillar, the national team has 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games, but you need to pay attention to the timing of positioning when facing Almiron's wing impact.

4. Comparison of tactical system and injury impact

Paraguay:

Tactical adjustment: coach Alfaro continues the 5-4-1 defensive counterattack formation, strengthening the wing breakthrough and set-piece tactics. The wing impact between Almiron and Enciso is the main offensive method, with set pieces accounting for 37%. However, the main central defender Gomez was injured, the stability of the defense line declined, and the right defense was weak. Injury risks: Main right-back Cáceres (Mexico America) is injured, substitute Polozo (Portland logger) lacks experience; midfielder Gruezo (Framengo) is suspended and his interception ability is reduced.

Uruguay:

Tactical Advantages: Bielsa changed to a 3-5-2 formation, emphasizing high-pressure pressing and rapid conversion. Nunes and Pellistri (Manchester United) form double strikers, Ugat and Bentancur (Spurs) control the midfield, and Araujo's three-center-back system dominant at high altitude balls. But left-back Picres (Palmeiras) has declined in form and needs to be wary of Paraguay's cross from the right. The lineup is incomplete: the midfield core Valverde (Real Madrid) is absent due to injury, and the offensive organization is dependent on Bentancur; the main goalkeeper Rochet (Urugua National) is inadvertent, and the substitute Mele (Barranquia Youth) is inadequate.

5. Historical confrontation and institutional data reference

Historical confrontation:

The two teams have had 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 official matches, including a 0-0 draw in the first leg of September 2024. Uruguay has an advantage in ball possession (55% per game), shots (14.3 per game), etc., but Paraguay has only lost 1 (3 wins and 2 draws) in the last 6 home games, and there are variables on the psychological level.

Institutional data:

According to the authoritative sports data platform, the initial European odds won 2.63, draw 2.90, and away win 2.90, and the institutions have strong confidence in Uruguay's away advantage. In the Asian session, Uruguay scored half of the water, and the market was adjusted to Uruguay scored half of the water, indicating that the agency's support for Uruguay's victory was strengthened. In terms of big and small goals, 2.5 goals were drawn, and combined with the recent offensive efficiency of the two teams (Paraguay has averaged 1.3 goals per game in the last 3 games and Uruguay has averaged 1.0 goals per game in the last 3 games), the possibility of a total goal being less than 2.5 goals is high.

6. Comprehensive analysis and victory and loss deduction

Paraguay's advantages lie in home games and set-piece tactics. The impact of Armiron and Enciso on the wing is the key to breaking the deadlock. However, Gomez's injury and weak right-side defense may become hidden dangers. If the success rate of crossing on the wing cannot exceed 25%, you may fall into a passive position.

Uruguay's high-pressure pressing system is mature, and Nunes and Ugat's midfield and frontcourt linkage can effectively tear up the Paraguay defense line, but Valverde's absence and weak left defense need to be vigilant. If Arauho can consolidate his defense line and seize the opportunity to counterattack, he is expected to score away points.

Conclusion: Combining the tactical system, injury impact and institutional data, Uruguay has a high probability of unbeaten away. If Uruguay can stabilize the defense line and seize the opportunity to counterattack, it is expected to continue its historical clash advantage; Paraguay needs to rely on home momentum and set pieces to create unpopularity.

(Note: All data in this article are from the official website of the South American Football Federation, the announcement of the Paraguay Football Association, the statement of the Uruguay Football Association and authoritative sports media. The citation content can be verified.)