The Premier League has heated up the five major battles. Who will fall behind in the Champions League ticket battle?

Sports Weekly All Media Original

League will end in half a month. "The last sprint moment" is used to this, but in many cases it is difficult to sprint, but instead, it will be "hum to each other" because of the energy exhausted. In the past, the Premier League had a "Get Four" vision. This year, the quota of the Champions League has increased, and the overall situation is quite different, but it has become "Get Five". If you don’t believe it, you can compare the scores last weekend. Six teams are expected to be in the top 5 but the top 5 have not yet been confirmed. Four of them have lost points, and only two teams have scored all 3 points. Everyone is polite, who will actually fall out in the end?

Since the points gap is not too big, even if there are only two rounds left in the Premier League, it is difficult for you to be sure that anyone will have no hope. However, in terms of points, some teams are still "confirmed to win", such as Arsenal, which is currently ranked second in the standings. Theoretically, if they scored another 1 point for 68 points, they could secure a UEFA Champions League place of 99.999%, because Villa, currently ranked 6th, can only score 69 points at most, and the team's goal difference is as much as 26 goals behind the Gunners.

What is more interesting is that although it is relatively difficult for Arsenal to enter the Champions League again, their schedule is a little awkward. Among the two opponents, there was relegation Southampton, but that was the last round to play. On May 18, the Gunners will face Newcastle at home, which is coming in a fierce manner and is also competing for a seat in the Champions League. The latter has won 2 wins and 1 draw in the last three rounds. It cannot be said that it is full of momentum, but its health must be a little better than Arsenal. The Gunners were already full of wounded soldiers and suffered losses to Liverpool last Sunday. The Spanish midfielder will be suspended in the next round. If Rice, Timber and Trosal, who were injured in the battle against the Reds, cannot get back from injury against Newcastle, then how Arteta will set up the lineup will be a big problem.

In case Newcastle beats Arsenal away, wouldn't the Magpies be the second team to win the Champions League ticket this season? There is indeed this possibility. Of course Arteta also said that the team's current goal is to ensure the Premier League runner-up, which is the obstacle for Newcastle. Even if you can't win, Arsenal must make sure that they are not stepped on by their opponents in the next round. After the Gunners, Newcastle's last round opponent is Everton, who is currently ranked 13th in the standings. The opponent has no reason to fight to the death, and the Magpie's hope of being shortlisted is no less than Arsenal.

Afterward, Manchester City, Chelsea, Villa and Nottingham Forest, these 4-7 teams seem a bit too close, and they can catch up with a 3-point gap in one game. Of course, Manchester City has many goals and goals advantages over Villa and Forest, and is not afraid of points being tied. But it should be noted that Blue Moon is the only team that has to fight for five games in two games in a week, and the FA Cup final is in the middle of this week. If the decisive battle against Crystal Palace is a little more expensive, will it affect your performance later? What we already know is that Haaland's injury has not made Guardiola's team show its strength, but instead he had a 0-0 game in front of the long-relegated deputy squad leader. If Manchester City is still in this state later, Bournemouth and Fulham, who have always had great ideas this season, may still want to perform against last year's Premier League championship performance.

Objectively speaking, Manchester City ended five consecutive victories in all competitions, and their complexion was not very good, but their advantage was that the pursuers behind them were even more unreliable. Chelsea and the Forest were losing points, only Villa defeated Bournemouth and chased closer a little. Among them, Chelsea, which is still in the top five, is the worst. He was hit by Newcastle away, and center Jackson will be suspended from the game next time. Judging from the remaining opponents, Manchester United may not be entangled with the Blues, after all, the Red Devils are going to prepare for the UEFA Cup final on May 21. But the last round away game against Nottingham Forest may be a life-and-death battle for both sides. The good news for the Blues is that the forest is in a very bad situation recently. The latter has only won one game against Tottenham in the past six league rounds, with three losses and a draw in the last two games, including a 2-2 against the relegated team Leicester City. After being equalized by the Blue Fox at home last weekend, Forest boss Marinakis was so angry that he went downstairs directly to the court to argue with coach Nuno Santo, which shows how tense the atmosphere inside the team is. But the Blues shouldn't be too happy too soon. What if the Forest can regain some confidence in the penultimate round against West Ham? This team really has to focus on defense, and it is not easy to pry open their door.

If the Blue Army forest is difficult to distinguish, then the one who is waiting for the fisherman to benefit is Vera. Emery's side seems to have completed all the tests after a 1-0 win over Bournemouth. Their remaining two opponents are home vs. Tottenham and away vs. Manchester United, which is not difficult according to the current trend. But Villa, who scored with Chelsea, had too few goals, so the opponent needed to make mistakes. According to Opta's supercomputer simulation, the probability of Villa entering the top five is not very low, 37.9%, but it is still lower than Chelsea's 56.3%. Nottingham Forest has only a 17.8% chance, while Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester City are all over 90%.