[6.11 Sports Lottery] Dong Mo Wednesday 3 strings 1 World Cup Preview! Who can control the initiative in the matchup between stars?

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Today's event analysis:

Wednesday 007 European Youth Championship 03:00 Portugal 21 VS France U21

Fundamentals

Portugal U21 showed strong dominance in the qualifiers stage and advanced strongly with a record of 9 wins and 1 loss. He scored 33 goals and conceded only 6 goals in 10 games. The stability of both offense and defense is a benchmark for the qualifiers. However, the team's form has fluctuated significantly recently, with two friendly matches losing 0-1 to Romania U21 and 2-4 to England U21, respectively, exposing the lack of adaptability of the defense line under high-intensity confrontation. In terms of core losses, the top scorer in the qualifiers, Fabio Silva (Las Palmas forward, 10 goals and 3 assists in 25 games in the season) withdrew due to injury, directly weakening the ability to finish the front line.

Although France U21 qualifiers ranked second in the group with 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, they have been in full swing in recent warm-up matches, defeating Uzbekistan U21, Slovakia U21 and England U21 in succession to win three consecutive victories, averaging 2.3 goals per game, and conceded only 1 goal on the defensive end. In terms of lineup depth, although Frankfurt striker Ekitic and Stuttgart midfielder Milo withdrew due to injury, the joining of Monaco midfielder Magasa and Rennes midfielder Sisse supplemented the midfield hardness. Tottenham star Ter (the club has 18 goals and 5 assists this season) still has the strength to crush the stage. However, the absence of defender Lukeba (abs strain) and forward Bahoya (ankle injury) may affect defense stability and wing breakout ability. In the last 7 matches, France U21 has an absolute advantage with 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. The most recent official match can be traced back to the 2006 European Youth Championship group stage, when France won 1-0 with the Portuguese goalkeeper's own goal. However, Portugal won 1-0 at home in the last friendly match between the two sides (2011), but the lineup was quite different from the current one. It is worth noting that France U21 has achieved 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last five direct conversations with Portugal U21, with a clear psychological advantage.

Fighting intention

As a favorite to qualify in Group C, both teams are determined to compete for the top spot in the group this game. As the top qualifier, the Portuguese U21 needs to consolidate the initiative in qualifying through victory; the French U21 hopes to continue the strong state of the warm-up match and lay confidence in the subsequent knockout rounds. Judging from the odds of winning, France ranked fourth with 5.50, Portugal ranked sixth with 9.00, and institutions have higher expectations for France to win the championship.

Recent status

Portugal U21's dominance in the qualifiers is in stark contrast to the downturn in the friendly match. The average ball possession rate in the qualifiers reached 56%, but the ball possession rate dropped to 42% against England U21 in friendly matches, revealing the instability of tactical execution. The French U21 showed strong tactical adaptability in warm-up matches. When facing opponents of different styles, they can both press and suppress them through high-level pressing (such as the possession rate of Slovakia U21 with 65% ball) and win through defensive counterattacks (such as the counterattack goals against England U21 account for 40%). Terr contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in the warm-up match, and Odobel's midfield dispatch success rate reached 87%, becoming the core of France's offensive.

Institutional attitude

Mainstream institutions initially opened the French U21 to get a draw/hemisphere water, and adjusted to a draw low on the spot. The European home win dropped from 1.90 to 1.60, and the away win rose from 3.60 to 4.20, and the market confidence was clearly tilted towards France. William Hill's implicit probability shows that France's winning probability is 62.5%, and the actual transaction proportion is as high as 68.3%, which poses a risk of overheating. In terms of big and small balls, the 2.5/3 balls are divided into water, combined with the two teams' total goals in 5 matches in the last 6 matches, the institution is open to big balls.

Comprehensive analysis

From the perspective of tactical games, Portuguese coach Rui Joeuge may continue to use the 4-3-1-2 formation, relying on winger Kunda's breakthrough and midfielder Pedro Santos' organization, but Fabio Silva's absence will lead to a decrease in the efficiency of the front end. The French U21 is expected to continue the 4-2-3-1 formation, with Terl's speed and Odobel's dribbling focusing on Portugal's left-side defensive loophole (Tavarez's defensive turnover rate of 23%), while Magasa's midfield interception ability can effectively limit Portugal's midfield penetration. Although there are hidden dangers in the French defense line due to Lukeba's absence, Portugal's recent away defense is insufficient (1.6 goals per game in the last 3 games), making it difficult to resist France's three-dimensional offense. So this game is optimistic that France's U21 will not be defeated.

Comprehensive Recommendation:

Negative

1-2, 0-2, 1-3

2/3/4 Ball