There is reason to believe that Lillard will join the championship team with a minimum salary next season. Which team will he join?

On July 10, in the NBA, a business league full of variables, the career trend of players often depends on the game of multiple factors. Damian Lillard, one of the most outstanding point guards in active service, had a dramatic experience from the Trail Blazers to the Bucks last season, and recent discussions about him likely to give up his high and basic salary to join the championship team are gradually emerging. From the analysis of existing information, this possibility is not groundless, but a rational deduction based on actual conditions and players' demands. The mystery of the buyout clause: zero compromise on giving up salary**

In the buyout agreement between Lillard and the Bucks in the 2023-24 season, the most interesting detail is that he did not make any concessions on salary. According to league insiders, Lillard's team insists on fully guaranteeing the execution of the contract, which is in stark contrast to the usual buyout of players accepting discounts (such as Griffin gave up $13.3 million and Kemba Walker gave up $20 million). This tough attitude sends a clear signal: Lillard still puts economic interests first in short-term decisions, but also lays the groundwork for subsequent operations - retaining the operation rights of complete salary space, so that when he chooses a basic salary contract in the future, the actual total income loss is controllable.

**Injury timeline and return strategy**

Lillard suffered a groin laceration in the 2025 playoffs, and a medical evaluation requires a 6-8-month recovery cycle. This means that his first half of the 2025-26 regular season (at least until January 2026) will be on hold. For any team, signing a player who is paid a lot but is a long-term absence is a huge risk. But if signed with a basic salary, the risk-benefit ratio will completely change: the championship team can use the playoffs to use an All-Star point guard with an injury special case or a veteran's basic salary (about $3.2 million). Referring to the case of Cousins ​​joining the Warriors in 2019, this "recovering for half a year and sprinting for the playoffs" model has been proven to be feasible.

**The urgent needs of the championship team match Lillard's demands**

Currently, there are many teams in the league that have the strength to compete for the championship and urgently need point guards:

- **Denver Nuggets**: Murray's injury hazard requires backcourt insurance, and Lillard's playoff experience and Jokic's ability to respond is a perfect match.

- **Miami Heat**: There is always a lack of top ball holders, and Spoelstra's system can maximize the cover of its defensive shortcomings.

- **Phoenix Suns**: Bill is in a state of unstable condition, Lillard can form a historically-level backfield fire with Booker.

The common point among these teams is that their salary space is locked and they can only provide basic salary. But if Lillard joins, his "key ball big heart" attribute (43.1% shooting percentage within 5 points in the last 5 minutes of his career) can directly strengthen the final puzzle of the championship.

**Balance of business value**

Although basic salary means a sharp decline in book income, Lillard's business territory has long exceeded the scope of wages. Its signature shoe series has annual sales of over $120 million, and Portland's real estate portfolio is valued at about $80 million. Choosing a team to compete for the championship will bring:

1. **Exposure value-added**: The global traffic on the finals stage can be increased by more than 300% compared to the regular season

2. **Career narrative reshaping**: If you win the championship as a core, your historical status will be upgraded from "loyalty fighter" to "champion leader"

3. **Retirement planning lays the foundation **: The commercial premium of the championship ring to the narrator/coach transformation can reach US$2-5 million/year

**The wisdom of risk hedging**

must be admitted that this choice has significant risks. The age of 35 (birthday in July 2025) is mixed with major injuries and is in doubt. But compare two paths:

- **Execution of high-paying contracts**: At the end of the reconstruction team's career, such as Westbrook's embarrassing situation with the Jazz in 2023

- **Actively reducing salary to compete for the championship**: Copy Aldridge's strategy of joining the Nets in 2022 (although unsuccessful, his reputation has not been damaged)

Obviously, the latter is more in line with the legendary player's final plan. NBA famous reporter Brian Windhorst once pointed out: "When a superstar enters the evening of his career, the championship is eager to overwhelm salary considerations exponentially. " This sentence may be the footnote of Lillard's team's decision-making.

**Revelation of historical cases**

In the past decade, successful cases of similar paths abound:

- In 2016, David West gave up the option of 12.6 million players and joined the Spurs at a basic salary - in 2020, Marc Gasol gave up 25.6 million, signed with the Lakers and won the championship

- In 2021, Lamarcus Aldridge and the Spurs bought out and joined the Nets after joining the Nets

The common point of these players is that they actively seek role transformation at the age of 33-35, and exchanged short-term economic sacrifices for long-term brand value. Lillard's competitive level is still significantly higher than the performance of the above cases in the same period (performing 24.6 points + 7.1 assists per game last season), and his bargaining power is actually stronger.

**The catalytic effect of the league pattern**

The special environment of the 2025 offseason further amplifies this possibility: the punitive clauses of the new version of the labor-capital agreement "Second Rich Line" (restricting transactions, freezing draft picks) force strong teams to rely more on basic salary reinforcement. At the same time, the salary cap is expected to rise to $180 million in 2026, allowing Lillard to seek his last pension contract after a one-year short contract - this "win the championship first and then make money" rhythm is similar to Durant's strategy of joining the Warriors in 2016.

Overall, Lillard's minimum salary joins the championship team is no longer a romantic imagination, but an optimal solution under the interweaving of multiple factors. This decision will be about the trade-off between money and glory, the game of risks and opportunities, and may also become a new paradigm for NBA star career planning.. When the 2026 playoff whistle sounds, we may see a light-loaded killer finishing the most gorgeous turn of his career on the most important stage.