O Neal in the small ball era? It was clearly a prehistoric shark swimming into the children s pool!

Imagine this scene. The Golden State Warriors' top five players are galloping onto the field, and suddenly a shadow envelopes the entire field - the 2.16-meter, 147-kilogram Shaquille O'Neal is grinning and running towards the penalty area. The next second, Dream Green was knocked away by an irresistible force, and the basket groaned in pain. This is a scene that many fans have repeatedly deduced in their minds. When O'Neal, the prehistoric shark, swims into the small ball era, what kind of storm will it cause?

01 The behemoth is coming. Can the small ball era withstand it?

O'Neal weighed 147 kilograms at his peak. What is the concept? Boban only weighs 132 kilograms, while the Warriors' dream-chasing Green only weighs 104 kilograms. O'Neal vs. Green? It was a showdown between an adult polar bear and a high school student. The inside of the small ball floated outside to shoot three-pointers one by one, and the basket became a decoration. But O'Neal is different. His career shooting percentage is as high as 60.2%. Standing under the basket and passing the ball to him is the most effective tactic. Think about it, when O'Neal asks for the ball in the low post, what should the defender of the small ball do? Single defense? It's equal to giving points. Double team? Then wait to be penetrated by an outside shot. During OK's three consecutive championships, the team was equipped with a group of shooters, waiting for opponents to double-team O'Neal and then catch and shoot open three-pointers. This approach works in any era.

02 Underrated athletic ability

Many people will say that O'Neal is slow, unable to guard pick-and-rolls, and unable to keep up with the rhythm of the ball. This is purely a misunderstanding! Anyone who watched O'Neal's games in his early years knows that as a rookie, he had a "strong but not fat" body shape. He could run like the wind and jump like lightning. During the 1992 draft physical test, the 137-kilogram big man set the record for the largest reach in the NBA physical test at that time. There was a game against the Pacers. The opposing guard Mark Jackson wanted to punish O'Neal with a mid-range shot. As a result, he was tightly guarded by him and he lost a few goals. In the blink of an eye, the Magic counterattacked. A one-stop breakthrough? O'Neal is also handy. At the Lakers' peak in 2000, the team ranked fourth in the league in fast break scoring, and O'Neal's fast break scoring was better than many guards in the same period.

03 Shark dunk, who can resist the small ball center?

Who among the small-ball centers can guard O'Neal? Let’s count them one by one: Embiid? He has height and weight, but there are too many injuries and not enough defensive focus; Jokic? High basketball IQ, but insufficient athletic ability; Gobert? The defensive range is wide, but the gap in core strength is too big. Anthony Davis is more biased towards power forward, and it is difficult to limit O'Neal alone. To put it bluntly, there is no center in the small ball league who can truly hold up O'Neal. Think about how he defeated Mutombo, the best defensive player, in the 2001 Finals, averaging 33 points, 15.6 rebounds and 3.4 blocks per game. ESPN's cross-era data model deduction shows that if the peak O'Neal is moved to the 2023-24 season, he is expected to average 28.6 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.8 blocks per game, with a true shooting percentage of 61.3%. But many fans think this estimate is still conservative!

04The rule change will be beneficial to O'Neal?

Many people may have forgotten that the current rules are actually more friendly to super centers like O'Neal. The abolition of the hand-checking rule will make it more difficult for outside players to interfere with the ball; the stricter vertical take-off rule (which prohibits defenders from moving laterally in the air) will make O'Neal's dunks more devastating. As for the defensive three-second rule? It has indeed weakened the traditional center's rim-protecting deterrence, but an offensive monster like O'Neal will be more comfortable defending the three-second zone. In order to restrict O'Neal, the league allowed zone defense and modified defensive rules, which indirectly gave rise to the subsequent trend of perimeter dominance. Now if he returns to the game, it may once again trigger the reincarnation of basketball philosophy.

05 How did O'Neal change the small ball era?

A team that really has O'Neal will never follow the Warriors and play small ball. They would slow down the tempo, fall into the half-court offense, and get the ball to O'Neal steadily. Think about this: O'Neal is in position inside, with four shooters surrounding the perimeter. If you double-team, he will pass the ball and shoot into the open space; if you don't double-team, he will turn around and dunk. In today's pursuit of three-point efficiency, a super center who can guarantee a shooting rate of more than 75% in the penalty area may have more strategic value than a group of 40% three-point shooters. More importantly, each team will be forced to restock traditional centers, which may end the "death five" era. In order to deal with O'Neal, a group of powerful insiders will emerge in the league, and the basketball style will be more diversified.

So back to the original question: What will happen to O'Neal in the small ball era? The answer is - it's not that O'Neal needs to adapt to the small ball era, but that changes need to be made for O'Neal in the small ball era. When this giant wearing an oversized jersey stands inside the three-point line, all tactical innovations in modern basketball may return to the most primitive proposition: how to prevent a person who you can't stop from scoring.